TiVo TiVos its merger rumors __»

June 17, 2010

Recently, M&A rumors have again begun circulating around TiVo (TIVO). When similar rumors were swirling in early April, we warned our FootnotedPro subscribers that signals in the company’s filings didn’t really mesh with the idea of an imminent deal. Since then, TiVo shares have dropped more than 50%, badly trailing the NASDAQ.

What did we see that the market didn’t at the time? Primarily, a series of mixed signals in the company’s filings. On their own, some of the signals might suggest merger preparations, but taken together in the context of TiVo’s history, the court victory it had just won, and other patterns in its past filings, it seemed more doubtful.

Of course, TiVo could embark on a deal any time, just as any public company could. But much of the company’s recent decline came on May 14, when TiVo’s shares fell 42-percent after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said it would review an earlier victory by the company in its patent case against Dish and Echostar. With that case still in flux, it’s hard to imagine TiVo’s board being thrilled by a deal — especially given the bump the initial victory brought.

Stay tuned.

Image source: agjimenez via Flickr.

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