Comments on: Discover’s scary slideshow…

By: Debunkr

Debunkr — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:23:33 +0000

Don’t get too worked up about the bankruptcy filings data. Bankruptcy filings for the last 5 years have been at historical lows. To get a 100%+ increase is more a function of working off a low base number. It’s the same as the dotcom projections that claimed 100% revenue increase from $1MM to $2MM.
The real question is when do bankruptcy filings reach a level of significance that will have a substantial impact on their business and the larger economy as a whole? People like to get excited about percentage increase, but the smaller the numbers and farther away from significance watermarks, the less important they are.

By: Michelle Leder

Michelle Leder — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 18:26:47 +0000

@ Mike_X: Wow — good catch. And great question. I didn’t spot that, but appreciate you pointing it out. Definitely raises some questions.

By: Mike_X

Mike_X — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:55:32 +0000

Another way they skewed CA and FL – September data for Chase and CapOne and May for their own portfolio in slide 27 – as if they have more timely data on competitors than their own portfolio.

By: JimBob

JimBob — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 19:18:52 +0000

Nothing surprising here. You also have to put into perspective the unusually low foreclosure rate we had leading into this recession. Throw in the fact that it is the worse since the recession of the 80’s (if not more) and the increase in foreclosure level seems pretty cut and dry.

By: Michelle Leder

Michelle Leder — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:35:18 +0000

@ Wyatt: Agreed that it’s skewed to make Discover look better than others. But then again, it is their slideshow. Would have been more surprised if it made them look worse than Citi or BofA.

By: Wyatt

Wyatt — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:29:42 +0000

This data is plainly pretty skewed to show Discover in the best light vis-a-vis its competition. Why, for example, were only CA and FL shown (understanding they’re the most populous among trouble states)? A more relevant and revealing chart might have shown the firms’ liabilities to all the black and red states.